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Monday, February 1, 2010

AND WE'RE HITTING THE HOME STRETCH: My predictions as to who will be nominated for Academy Awards tomorrow morning

I posted previously who I thought would make the cut tomorrow when the Academy Award nominations are released. Today, with only one day to go, I am updating my predictions for the top categories.

Best Motion Picture

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds



A Serious Man


Up in the Air

I dropped Nine and Julia and Julie and replaced them with An Education and Invictus. Nine crashed and burned upon opening and Julia and Julie, which was once a sure thing got lost in the shuffle, I think. I predict now that The Hurt Locker will win picture because Up in the Air peaked too soon and The Hurt Locker hasn’t even peaked.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

I dropped Emily Blunt who was always questionable. After Bullocks win at the SAG and Golden Globes, her nom seems certain and will probably win now over Meryl Streep.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

I added Renner as the fifth. Bridges is expected to win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Marion Cotillard, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo'Nique, Precious

Julianne Moore, A Single Man

I have no changes here, but I’m uncertain about Marion Cotillard, but not sure who would get in if she doesn’t make it.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Pictur

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Alfred Molina, An Education

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I have sorrowfully removed Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles and put in Matt Damon for Invictus. Christoph Waltz is suppose to walk away with it.

Best Animated Feature Film

Fantastic Mr. Fox

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

The Princess and the Frog


No changes here.

Best Director - Motion Picture

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Lee Daniels, Precious

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

No changes here, but I think Cameron may win director.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture - Original

Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, 500 days of summer

Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Pete Docter, Bob Petersen, Thomas McCarthy, Up; Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman, The Messenger

Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

I had In the Loop in the wrong category. So now I have to add another and am not sure what to add, but decided to go for the Messenger.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture – Adapted

Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9

Nick Hornby, An Education

Harold P. Manning, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Tony

Roche, In the Loop

Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

I’ve added In the Loop to this list.


  1. AVATAR is the one to beat for best picture. The only other ones I've heard even discussed are Up In The Air and Hurt Locker. Avatar wins because it's just so effin overwhelming.

  2. You could be right. It was the surprise winner at the Golden Globes. But The Hurt Locker picked up the DGA and PGA awards. It will be an interesting fight--ex-wife versus ex-husband.

  3. I found Hurt Locker very difficult to relate to. Unlikeable protagonist. Also, the Hurt Locker is timely,but Avatar is both timely and timeless. I have a lot of friends who dis Avatar for lacking a story, but there was quite a good story there, even if it's substantially been done before. I just think the Academy will pick Avatar because recognition of sci fi as a serious film genre is LONG overdue, and this is the perfect chance for them to play catchup. (They may not care of people think they're snobs,but people thinking they're out of step is something else altogether.) The other thing is Avatar will clean up in all the technical categories, and that stuff counts in the assessment of "best picture." No acting noms, but so what? LOTR didn't have any, either.