My analysis of the Best Actress Oscar Race, part duex.
My previous entry was a general analysis of the race when it came to Best Actress. For this entry, let’s go directly to my list:
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook right now has the lead to win even though the movie hasn’t opened yet. At the same time, I hesitate to be definite here since the movie is still an unknown quantity. But her nomination seems assured. Probably what helps is that she has proven herself as an actress by getting a nomination for a small, independent film (Winter’s Bone), but also an actress that can make a ton of money (The Hunger Games), a double whammy.
Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild. This has been settled law for some time. Not only did this eight year old munchkin give a marvelous performance, the movie is likely to get a Best Picture nom, a possible Best Director, a possible Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay nom. And it’s still in the theaters. I also can’t imagine any voter, no matter how Scrooge McDuck they are, who would want to give this fairy tale an unhappy ending.
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. This is also supposed to be almost a sure thing. Though the Academy is more loathe to give career awards and noms to women than to men, Riva has been around since another amour film, Hiroshima, Mon Amour (1959), one of the great films of all time. Amour was also suppose to get a nomination for co-lead Jean-Louis Trintignant, but as the movies with strong male leads started pouring in, that was that. Amour is suppose to be Michael Haneke’s most accessible film and is in the lead to win in the best Foreign Language category and may even get a Best Picture, Director and Screenplay nom.
Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone. A Hollywood favorite since winning the Oscar for La Vie en Rose, she is supposed to give a knock out performance. The filmmaker Jacques Audiard is also responsible for such films as A Prophet and The Beat that My Heart Skipped and is fast becoming one of France’s leading directors. However, this is still an unknown quantity.
Helen Mirren for Hitchcock. It doesn’t really matter where she decides to run, this is the category that will most likely get her. A superb performance helped by a strong possibility that her co-lead, Anthony Hopkins will also receive one.
Other possibilities: Naomi Watts for The Impossible is getting some buzz, but it may be too little too late. Keira Knightley in Anna Karanina just opened, but it didn’t get very good reviews and is not exciting anyone. And Helen Hunt in The Sessions will probably get a supporting actress nom.
Which means, sorry Jessica Chastain. You should probably start pushing for that supporting acting nom instead.