Continuing
my analysis of the Oscar race (or as I call it, I need to get a life), it’s
time to focus on the supporting acting categories. One would think that supporting categories,
whether male or female, would be much more difficult to predict and in one way
they are. While there is only one, maybe
two, leads in a film (per gender), every film is crowded with supporting since,
by deduction, if you’re not one of the two leads, you only have one
alternative—supporting. At the same
time, like most categories, the possible nominations actually, and perhaps
surprisingly, tend to settle rather fast to usually little more than six, or on
rare occasions, seven possibilities.
I’ll start
with the Best Supporting Actor category or as I and a friend of mine call it,
the Don Ameche Award, named after the win by that actor for his role in Cocoon,
not so much for his acting skill (which was often considered a joke by critics
and film aficionados, though he did get better as he aged, like fine wine and
cheese), but as a career award (like James Coburn, Christopher Plummer, Jack
Palance, Sean Connery, Martin Landau, Alan Alda). At the same time, I’m being facetious. This doesn’t happen as often as one might
think, and most of these performances were very deserving. But I believe someone once did a study and
discovered that supporting actor winners on average were older than supporting
actress winners. In the supporting actor
category, it helps to have paid your dues more than in the distaff side, where
voters (mostly male) tend to like their winners young and up and coming (even
to the point of being a bit too Humbert Humbert in their choices, perhaps?).
At any rate,
the dust has started to settle and it looks as if the list is becoming fairly
clear. At the same time, predictions are a bit
hampered here by some of the films not having opened yet, so the performances in
those movies are still somewhat unknown quantities.
Alan Arkin
for Argo to win. This now seems pretty
settled and it would take a lot to unseat his position. He’s already won his career award for Little
Miss Sunshine, but that probably won’t cause him any problems this time around. It’s a tremendous performance, a masterpiece
of comic timing, in a very popular movie. At the same time, Argo may have peaked a bit
too soon and I may be speaking a bit too early.
Philip
Seymour Hoffman for The Master. The
Master went totally over my head (and apparently, based on audience reaction,
I’m not the only one). Everything about
The Master is a bit iffy when it comes to nominations just because it didn’t connect
with viewers, including Oscars voters.
But everyone is still saying that Hoffman is a shoo in (some think he
may even win, but I don’t see it yet). A
lot may depend on the campaign, since the movie has disappeared and may take a
little doing to get people to remember it even opened this year (critics’
awards may help here).
Tommy Lee
Jones in Lincoln. He steals every scene he’s in and somehow
breaths life into the somewhat stilted dialog.
Lincoln is coming along as a
major contender against Argo for best picture with a success at the box office
that exceeded expectations (Argo may now have peaked too soon), and Daniel
Day-Lewis is almost certain to win best actor, which could give Jones’
nomination a boost.
Robert de
Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. It has
now opened, been reviewed, is doing very well at the box office and no one has
stopped saying de Niro is going to get a nom, so it seems that he will be
included.
Leonardo
DiCaprio in Django Unchained. This is an
unknown quantity as the movie hasn’t opened yet (apparently a story about a
slave rescued by a bounty hunter with said slave now out to get revenge against
the white men who abducted his wife is seen as the perfect choice for a
Christmas opening). What helps is that
DiCaprio is a leading actor doing a supporting role, and this is always a plus when
going for a nomination (and sometimes you win—Robin Williams and Renee
Zellweger). But until the movie opens, it’s hard to
say. This has caused some problems for
Christoph Waltz. The talk is he has been
pushed to go for Best Actor (an unlikely nom at best), possibly to give
DiCaprio a better chance. But that’s
mere speculation based on information I don’t really have, so do with it what
you will.
Also
possible is Dwight Henry, so deserving for Beasts of the Southern Wild, but
it’s a very crowded category and he may get squeezed out; Russell Crowe for Les
Miserables, too unknown a quantity right now; Matthew McConaughey for Magic
Mike, and in a weaker year he might have a chance since he’s done so many
movies this year and has worked hard to broaden himself as an actor, which
translates as really paid your dues (which the voters like), but it looks like
he won’t make it; anybody else from Argo—very doubtful.