THE CRITICS PART DUEX: The Los Angeles Film Critics Weigh In

The most interesting of the awards came out this week, not because they necessarily show the best judgment, but because their taste and mine are so close this year (okay, so maybe that means they are showing the best judgment). I’m talking about the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. The LAFCA probably has more influence than any other critics group (outside the Golden Globes) on the Oscars, mainly because they are in Los Angeles, so they are probably the most difficult for voters to avoid.

Best Picture is The Social Network, which should put a number of contractors to work building shelves to hold all the awards it is getting. Interesting, though, is Carlos coming in second. Not eligible for the Oscars because it was made for TV, it is one of the finest films of the year. However, again, The Social Network winning only helps ensure that it gets a nom come Oscar time. The King’s Speech is still going to win. Just deal with it.

Best Actor went to Colin Firth for The King’s Speech adding to his momentum. Second place went to Edgar Ramirez for Carlos, again one of the finest performances of the year, but again, not eligible since it was in a made for TV film. However, joy to me, Kim Hye-Ja won Best Actress for Mother; Hye-Ja will most likely win my personal Best Actress award when I get around to doing the Howies. Runner up is Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone, which should help her momentum.

Director was a tie between Olivier Assayas for Carlos and David Fincher for The Social Network. Assayas, of course, doesn’t qualify for the Tinseltown award, but this helps Fincher’s momentum. There is an outside chance the Oscar voters could split the Picture/Director award this year and Fincher could win it, but I think it’s going to be Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, and again, just deal with it.

Neils Arestrup won Supporting Actor for The Prophet (he was on my list last year). Significantly, though, Geoffrey Rush came in second. Will Rush be able to defeat Christian Bale for The Fighter? I say yes. Jacki Weaver won Supporting Actress for Animal Kingdom, which again helps that momentum thingy. It does seem to suggest the fight at the Oscars will be between Melissa Leo and Weaver; I still believe Leo will win, but Weaver’s awards are making the contest more interesting than usual. Olivia Williams came in second for The Ghost Writer, an unusual choice, and it won’t matter a hoot come nomination time.

Best Screenplay is Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network; second is David Seidler for The King’s Speech. I think that just about sums up the winners in those two Oscar categories this year.

Also of interest, Foreign Language film is Carlos, with my favorite film of the year Mother, coming in second. Since neither were entered by their respective countries, no Oscars. But I love the movies so much, I had to mention that.

Finally, though Toy Story 3 won Best Animated film, The Illusionist received runner up, which may give it the recognition it needs to be third on the ballot.

Next: The Golden Globes

AND THEY'RE ROUNDING THE FIRST CORNER: New York Film Critics announce their winners

The New York Film Critics announced their awards yesterday. Though they don't influence the Oscars a great deal, they can add to the buzz and help voters remember possible nominees they may have forgotten. But it's hard to say that the NYFC will be doing much of that this year in the top categories (since it has now become somewhat clear, though still a little vague, that the picture, directing and acting awards are more or less decided), though there are a couple of possibilities in the other categories.

The Hurt Locker once again won best picture and director, but I still contend that the Oscar voters will go for the less in your face Up In The Air, since it's topical and not as heavy as the last couple of winners, Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men. Best pictures genres often run in cycles and I think something a tad lighter is due to take home the gold. George Clooney won the NYFC acting award (for two movies, The Fantastic Mr. Fox and Up in the Air), but it still looks like a Jeff Bridges career achievement year. Meryl Street, Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique won the others, which will probably mirror the Academy Awards.

The two areas where NYFC might be of help to potential nominees is that In the Loop (perhaps the best writing of the year) won for best screenplay and since there are ten nominees for screenplay at the Oscars (original and adapted), this may very well help remind the voters. It was also runner up for the Los Angeles Film Critics award. Also to be noted is the win of The White Ribbon for cinematography in both the NYFC and LAFCA, which may help translate to Oscar noms (assuming it will be eligible; I've been told it's going to open the last day of the year and unless it's played for a week in either LA or New York, it shouldn't be eligible for anything but foreign language film).

I was also excited to see that the NYFC awarded Of Time and the City, Terence Davies wonderful portrait of his home city, Liverpool, through found footage, best non-fiction film (no longer always called documentary because too many people are expanding what the term documentary means). Also Summer Hours, the beautiful French film, won best foreign film for both NYFC and LAFCA, but since it's not the French foreign language film entry (The Prophet is), that won't make any difference.

Today, the Golden Globes were announced, but I have to talk to my best friend Jerry first before commenting on that. Also, Wed. or Thurs. I'll start listing what I think are going to be the nominees, unless I suddenly find myself with time on my hands and do it earlier.

THE SUSPENSE MOUNTS: Critics start sounding in on Awards 2009

The second installment of the movie awards season begins with a bunch of critic's awards. The least important, at least in regards to which films in the U.S. will receive awards, not in overall significance, are the European Film Awards. The main names to take note of here is Haneke's The White Ribbon which won three awards and Jacques Audiard's The Prophet which won two. The White Ribbon is Germany's entry in the foreign film category and The Prophet is France's. However, the vagaries of the foreign film selection at the Oscars is so much it's own thing that this may not mean anything except to give these films some extra buzz and give people a reason to complain about the foreign film voting system if neither one is nominated.

Next is the AFI selection of the top ten best films of the year. These are “Coraline,” “The Hangover,” “The Hurt Locker,” “The Messenger,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Sugar,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.” This is a more egalitarian list that one will probably see come Oscar nominations. It is doubtful that Caroline, The Hangover or Sugar will make the Oscar cut (Caroline will only be nominated in animation; The Hangover too lowbrow, Sugar too indie--i.e., most Oscar voters probably haven't heard of it, much less seen it). This does give energy to nominations for The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Precious and Up. The others are possibilities, but still not a lot of buzz. The main movie missing here is Inglorious Basterds, a real surprise.

Then there are the Broadcast Film Critics Award nominations that came out. They have more nominations in each category than the Oscars. My overall analysis is that this helps continue the buzz with Inglorious Basterds and Up in the Air and now also gives buzz for Avatar and Nine, both of which did very well in the various categories. However, I wouldn't doubt that the BFCA best picture nominations will be close to the Oscars, with the exception of District 9 which didn't make the Critics Circle, but still has a strong chance. It also has a listing of actors that may also be close to the Oscars (though the Critics here nominated six per category and the Academy only has five). And I still think Julie & Julia will get in.

This leaves what may be the most significant indicator of what is going to be nominated and what isn't, the LA. Film Critics. Though they are critics and not voters and voters have a habit of not listening that closely to the critics, these ones live in L.A. and probably help with the buzz on certain films. The L.A. Film Critics gave a leg up to The Hurt Locker, awarding it picture and director. The Hurt Locker is probably going to be nominated at the Oscars for those categories, but I still suspect Up in the Air is going to win (and here came in second).

But the Critics really gave a leg up to Jeff Bridges for best actor for Crazy Heart. Colin Firth, who was the favorite to win the Oscar (and who came in runner up here), may now lose out to Bridges in a combination performance of his career combined with a career type award, more often given to male actors than female actors (the only thing that might have helped more is if Bridges had gotten an honorary Oscar the year before). This really is too bad for Firth, a fine actor who doesn't make many films that get Oscar buzz and this may be his only chance. But Bridges has been nominated four times with no wins.

Best actress went to the more than deserving Yolande Moreau (who may get my award for best actress) for Seraphine. This probably won't translate into Oscar buzz since like Sugar, this is a film that most voters probably haven't even heard of. Carey Mulligan came in second, which helps her with a nomination (after the National Board of Review Award), but I'm gong out on a limb right now and agree with Jerry, my best friend in Chicago, who thinks that the Academy will decide it's been long enough since Meryl Streep's last win and give her her third Oscar for Julie & Julia.

Supporting awards when to Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique, both of whom right now are expected to win the Oscars. Runners up went to Anna Kendricks, and I'm now convinced she is a strong contender for an Oscar Nomination for Up in the Air, and Peter Capaldi for In the Loop, though like other deserving artists, was in a movie most of the voters probably haven't even heard of, so there goes his chances.

Also note that Fantastic Mr. Fox beat out Up for animation, though I still have a feeling that the Princess and the Frog is going to take home the Oscar. Just a feeling.

Also noteworthy is that The White Ribbon's name showed up for the LA Film Critics. This probably doesn't mean anything. Jerry said that The White Ribbon won't open in L.A until December 30th, less than a week before the end of the year. I don't know what this means when it comes to qualifying for Oscars since movies are suppose to play a week in LA or New York (though not necessarily for a nom in foreign language category).

Another note: I read in the LA Times that people who vote for best picture nominations often don't put down a full list of names (this year, ten), but often only put down one or two, which can skew the nominations. I would think this would skew the noms toward more tent pole, studio films since those are the ones more people see, but that's not the way it works it seems.

Next to come, New York Film Critics and The Golden Globes.