The BAFTAs and WGA Awards have come and gone so now it’s pretty much over but the waiting.It’s not unusual for the BAFTAs to match up with the Oscars (they gave the best actress award to Marion Cotillard, for example, when many, including moi, expected it to be Julie Christie), even though the voting bloc only partially overlaps.I think this year, their awarding Best Picture, Director and Screenplay to The Hurt Locker pretty much seals the deal for Bigelow and company.However, I think Best Actor will not go to Colin Firth (as it did at the BAFTAs, though common wisdom had it that Firth was going to win the Oscar until Crazy Heart was rushed to an earlier release), but to Jeff Bridges.And Carey Mulligan will also not win Best Actress (as she did at the BAFTAs).That should still go to Sandra Bullock (who wasn’t nominated for a BAFTA; The Blind Side hasn’t opened in England); even if it didn’t go to Bullock, the Oscar would probably go to Meryl Streep.
The WGA awards went to the expected winners of the Oscars: The Hurt Locker for original screenplay and Up in the Air for adapted.It is true that some screenplays nominated for Oscars, like Inglorious Basterds and In the Loop, weren’t eligible for WGA awards.But The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air were the expected winners long before the WGA nominations were even announced.The Hurt Locker should now win Best Picture and Director, which means it should win the screenplay award as well.Up in the Air, which for some time was expected to win Best Picture until it peaked too early, should get the adapted screenplay as the consolation prize.
I posted previously who I thought would make the cut tomorrow when the Academy Award nominations are released. Today, with only one day to go, I am updating my predictions for the top categories.
Best Motion Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
I dropped Nine and Julia and Julie and replaced them with An Education and Invictus.Nine crashed and burned upon opening and Julia and Julie, which was once a sure thing got lost in the shuffle, I think.I predict now that The Hurt Locker will win picture because Up in the Air peaked too soon and The Hurt Locker hasn’t even peaked.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
I dropped Emily Blunt who was always questionable.After Bullocks win at the SAG and Golden Globes, her nom seems certain and will probably win now over Meryl Streep.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
I added Renner as the fifth. Bridges is expected to win.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
I have no changes here, but I’m uncertain about Marion Cotillard, but not sure who would get in if she doesn’t make it.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Pictur
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
I have sorrowfully removed Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles and put in Matt Damon for Invictus.Christoph Waltz is suppose to walk away with it.
Best Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
The Princess and the Frog
Up
No changes here.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
No changes here, but I think Cameron may win director.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture - Original
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, 500 days of summer
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Pete Docter, Bob Petersen, Thomas McCarthy, Up; Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
I had In the Loop in the wrong category.So now I have to add another and am not sure what to add, but decided to go for the Messenger.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture – Adapted
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Harold P. Manning, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Tony
I am behind in my entries on the Awards race. The National Society of Film Critics came out last week and I haven’t commented on it yet. The NSFC awards are my favorite. They are the most eccentric and esoteric and the group usually make the best decisions, or closest to the best, when it comes to the best of the year. But their impact on the Academy Award nominations are usually pretty nil.
They went along with many major award groups and gave The Hurt Locker best of the year along with best actor and director. The Hurt Locker is expected to get a best picture and director nom as it is. However, the win for Jeremy Renner can’t hurt. It will keep reminding people about his performance as they read those Please Consider… ads. The best actress went to Yolando Moreau for Seraphine. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to conceive she will receive a best actress nomination though she, along with Tilda Swinton for Julia who also won’t get a nom, gave the best performances of the year. Best supporting actor and actress went to the usual suspects: Christophe Waltz and Mo’Nique, both of whom are suppose to win the Oscars. The interesting thing here is that Waltz tied with Paul Schneider who gave a great performance in Bright Star. But supporting actor is a tight race and it’s unlikely this will help Schneider make the list.
It does look like I’ll have to remove Nine from my list of possible contenders. It just seems to do nothing but lose buzz. I will now replace it with An Education. Emily Blunt is getting good reviews for Young Victoria, but the buzz isn’t there so I will replace her with Sandra Bullock for the Blind Side. I will add Jeremy Renner to my best actor list. Everything else stays the way it is as of now.
The Envelope had an interesting article on whether box office affects a picture's chances of winning. They focus on The Hurt Locker (which is doing okay, but is more a critic's darling so far) and Nine (which is not doing well, at least in smaller locales). The premise in the article is a bit off, though, for the Hurt Locker. It was never that likely that Hurt Locker would win best picture, but only be nominated, and it's not because of box office. I do think the Academy members are looking for something a little lighter this year (Up in the Air). The Hurt Locker will be nominated, which shouldn't be hurt by it's box office. Nine is something else. No one really expected The Hurt Locker to be a blockbuster at the box office, but people did for Nine and so it's poor showing could have an effect on voters. At the same time, this is a Weinstein property and never count out the Weinsteins. If the general public isn't spending a lot of money on it, but the Academy viewers like it when they see it, it could still get nominations. And the Weinsteins are brilliant at getting people to see their films (rumor has it that if you are in a retreat in the Himalayas, they will hunt you down and show you the film). So, Nine still has a chance, but it is getting a bit dimmer.
The Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, which is the strongest indication of what films and actors are going to be nominated for Academy Awards.The Golden Globe gave even more impetus to Nine and Avatar, but just how well that will translate to Oscar nominations can’t be truly gauged until they open this week in L.A.SAG gave some leg up to Sandra Bullock (the Blind Side), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones, he also got a Golden Globe nom) and Matt Damon (supporting for Invictus).
It should be noted that The Hurt Locker has reopened at the Vista in L.A. and the Road has reopened at the Nuart.Since …Locker is bound to get nominations as it is for picture, director and screenplay, the main beneficiary of this would be Jeremy Renner who is trying to get a best actor nomination.The Road just never really connected with the industry, so it’s hard to say whether this reopening will help it much.But it is being distributed by The Weinstein Company and one should never count them out.It should also be noted that this strategy was also tried for Bad Lieutenant and Bright Star, but I don’t think it’s going to help Nicholas Cage or the actors from Bright Star get noms.
Below is my present guess as to the nominations with ruminations. This list will change as movies open and buzz rises or dies.
Best Motion Picture
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Julie & Julia
Nine
Precious
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
The doubtful ones right now are District 9 (since Avatar is also science fiction); Julie & Julia (which may get replaced by It’s Complicated); Nine (which may sink once it opens); Up (which may be done in by voters only putting it in the animation category, added to the fact that two other well received animated films opened, The Fantastic Mr. Fox and The Princess and the Frog, with The Princess… possibly pulling an upset and winning best animation).Some that may sneak in are The Messenger, A Serious Man, An Education, Star Trek (though the last is doubtful).Up in the Air is expected to win.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
The most precarious here is Emily Blunt whose film is not opening with a lot of fanfare.This may mean that Marianne Cotillard may sneak in for Nine, even though she only has a supporting role. And of course, there's Sandra Bullock who is really gathering steam (she got a SAG nom). Meryl Streep is expected to win.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
The fifth entry is the hardest to decide this year.But it should be among the following, Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine; Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man; Matt Damon, The Informant!, with Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker possibly being the one if The Hurt Locker can work up a little more steam. It looks like Nicholas Cage is out of it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
If Marion Cotillard does get a best actress nomination, then Penelope Cruz could get in for Nine. Mo’Nique is suppose to walk away with it.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Pictur
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christian Mckay, Me and Orson Welles
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
This is the expected list, but don’t be surprised in Alfred Molina or even Christian McKay are knocked out for Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones or Matt Damon, Invictus.Though this category often goes for a career award (which would mean Christopher Plummer), Christoph Waltz is suppose to walk away with it.
Best Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
The Princess and the Frog
Up
This pretty much seems to be the category.I still think The Princess and the Frog will win.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Since there are ten movies, this is a hard category to predict.Reitman is expected to win.Lee Daniels might get knocked out for, well, to be honest, I don’t know.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture - Original
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Harold P. Manning, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Tony
Roche, In the Loop
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, 500 days of summer
A tough category.Too many good, original screenplays.But In the Loop and 500 days could be knocked out for Pete Docter, Bob Petersen, Thomas McCarthy, Up; Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman, The Messenger; and Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated (who is popular in L.A.).But if In the Loop can be nominated, it could win.Other than that, since the Hurt Locker won’t win best picture, but is the critics and cult favorite, it might win.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture – Adapted
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Nick Hornby, An Education
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Tom Ford, David Scearce, A Single Man
I suppose Nine or Julie & Julia might get in here, but this sort of looks like the line up at this point.
In order to post a message, either click on "comments" at the bottom of the post or click on the title of the post and a comment section will appear at the bottom of the post. All comments are welcome.
